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EARNING WAVE

converting information into profits

SURYADEV BANDARI, Research Analyst, SEBI Regd. No: INH200004693

WHAT YOU GET HERE...

Trade recommendations based on
Technical Analysis and "The ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE"
from SEBI Registered Research Analyst.

Technical Analysis is applied social psychology. It aims to recognize trends and changes in crowd behavior in order to make intelligent trading decisions. We believe that by recognizing current Chart pattern and identifying balance of power between bulls and bears, we can anticipate next direction. we can convert this information into profits with minimum amount of risk.

NIFTY UPDATE Thursday, 19-07-2018

nifty

Bulls failed one more time at higher level at 11076. Failed to breakout recent high 11078 due to lack of followup buying and due to profit booking. Bears stepped in and markets witnessed all round selling pressure in majority of sectoral indices mainly Metals and Pharma stocks. Midcaps and Small caps too witnessed profit booking and formed negative formations in charts. Closed below key 11000 level, indicating that Bears likely to drag nifty further towards below 10900 levels today. In that case we get confirmation of major trend reversal. FMCG AND IT sectors which were helped in previous bounce from 10550 to 11076 were facing top reversal formations in daily charts, hence, this correction to continue some more time. INDIA VIX rising consistently indicating that more volatility ahead in market. Advance Decline ratio indicating more profit booking and selling pressure in market. Bulls exhausted and Bears getting strength. Below 10860 spot, Bears drive the market down. Resistance remains 11171-11121. Key support to watch for today's intraday is 10860. Once this level breaks down, we get confirmation of major trend reversal to downside has begun at higher degree.
In Intraday point of view, 10925 is first minor support, below that 10860 next key support. Momentum indicators in overbought zone and showing negative divergence. Today's close is important for major trend determination. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10880-10860 zone. Book profits wherever possible and stay in cash. Avoid fresh long positions. Below 10860, Bears get strength and control the market.
10925-10880-10860 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11070-11121

NIFTY UPDATE Tuesday, 17-07-2018

nifty

As expected, Nifty daily charts formed top reversal pattern after SHOOTING STAR formation. Upward gap filled between 10976-11003 and closed well below that level. Now next key level to watch out 10860 today. Bank nifty too formed top reversal formation yesterday. Major sectoral indices closed in red. We need confirmation of trend reversal by closing below 10860 today. INDIA VIX has risen 4% yesterday indicating that more volatility ahead in market. Advance Decline ratio indicating more profit booking and selling pressure in market. Bulls exhausted and Bears getting strength. Below 10860 spot, Bears drive the market down. Resistance remains 11171-11121. Key support to watch for today's intraday is 10860. Once this level breaks down, we get confirmation of trend reversal to downside.
Intraday point of view, 10880 is first minor support, below that 10860-10820 next key supports. Momentum indicators in overbought zone and showing negative divergence. Today's close is important for trend determination. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10880-10860 zone. Book profits wherever possible and stay in cash. Avoid fresh long positions. Below 10860, Bears get strength and control the market.
10880-10860 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11070-11121

NIFTY UPDATE Monday, 16-07-2018

nifty

Doji + SHOOTING STAR + Negative Candle formation at top in Nifty daily charts indicating that BULLS are nervous at current levels. One more negative session today can trigger more selling pressure. Banknifty too in similar formation. Very few stocks participating in this rally not going to sustain for longer period. very soon its going to reverse. Resistance remains 11171-11121. Key support to watch for today's intraday is 10945. Once this level breaks down, we get confirmation of trend reversal to downside. Sectoral indices showing weakness in charts. Nifty left gap between 10976-11003. This gap needs to be close.
A 'Shooting Star' pattern is formed when the index comes under selling pressure as traders start booking profits at higher levels.Its a warning signal to bulls.
Today charts indicating open possibility for trend reversal, still we need confirmation of trend reversal today by forming one more negative session and close below 10976. IT, MIDCAP, SMALLCAP INDICES closed in deep negative formations. These are correlating with Bearish view. As mentioned earlier, Wave B can end at near to or slightly below Wave A begin which is at 11171. Momentum indicators in overbought zone and showing negative divergence. Today's close is important for trend determination. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10973-10945 zone. Book profits wherever possible and stay in cash. Avoid fresh long positions. Below 10975, Bears get strength and control the market.
10975-10945 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11070-11121

NIFTY UPDATE Friday, 13-07-2018

nifty

Nifty formed SHOOTING STAR formation after DOJI pattern in daily charts. Both two formations are warning signs that nifty near to top reversal. Nifty left gap between 10976-11003. Today that gap likely to fillup. 10923 is next key support to watchout today. Close between 10950-10923 is a confirmation of top reversal. Will it happen or nifty makes one more attempt to upside? we need to watch. Fresh shorts advisable only below 10923 spot level. There it breaches supporting trendline. Surprisingly, Banknifty too formed Shooting star formation.
A 'Shooting Star' pattern is formed when the index comes under selling pressure as traders start booking profits at higher levels.Its a warning signal to bulls.
It opened possibility for trend reversal, still we need confirmation of trend reversal today by forming negative session and close below 10976. IT, MIDCAP, SMALLCAP INDICES closed in deep negative formations. These are correlating with Bearish view. Bounce is on back of very few high beta market leaders. Other stocks not participating in bounce. Hence, its sustainability is under threat. Upside resistance existed at 11120-11171, we still below it. As mentioned earlier, Wave B can end at near to or slightly below Wave A begin which is at 11171. Momentum indicators in overbought zone and showing negative divergence. Today's close is important for trend determination. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10973-10923 zone. Book profits wherever possible and stay in cash. Avoid fresh long positions. Below 10975, Bears get strength and control the market.
10975-10923 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11070-11121

NIFTY UPDATE Thursday, 12-07-2018

nifty

Nifty formed DOJI pattern in daily charts. Its a warning signal to bulls. It opened possibility for trend reversal, still we need confirmation of trend reversal today by forming negative session and close below 10885. Open possibility for EVENING STAR formation. Co-incidentally or Correlation, Banknifty, Midcap and Small cap indices too formed negative formations yesterday. Global markets too closed in negative. Upside resistance existed at 11000, we still below it. As mentioned earlier, Triangle pattern can end by false breakout. Nifty breakout 10850 two days back, today is 3rd day, usually on 3rd day false breakouts re enters breakout region. In that case, we may test 10850 today. Momentum indicators in overbought zone and showing negative divergence. Today's close is important for trend determination. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10885-10875 zone. Book profits wherever possible and stay in cash. Avoid fresh long positions. Below 10885, Bears get strength and control the market.
10875-10850 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11000-11050

NIFTY UPDATE Wednusday, 11-07-2018

nifty

Nifty opened gap up and closed outside of triangle. False breakouts are common in triangle termination points. As alternate count, I have drawn another parallel channel as shown in chart, which having next resistance at around 11000-11050 range. Mere 50-60 points upside from yesterday's high point. One thing is clear that, Bounce from 9951 is clealy counter up move on basis of its characteristics. Hence, Ongoing rally can end abruptly and take reversal at any point of time. Investors and traders do not confuse it as fresh rally. Its counter upmove bounce and at any time top reversal can happen sharply. 1st sign of weakness comes on breaking 10865 zone. On the whole, one more important thing is only few stocks are participating in this bounce and they too technically negative divergence formations. Hence, this boucne not going to sustain for longer time. very short time we can see top reversal. Let's wait and watch.
10865 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 11000-11050

NIFTY UPDATE Tuesday, 10-07-2018

nifty

As forecast yesterday, nifty completed TRIANGLE formation yesterday. Reached upper resistance line at point 'e' as shown in chart. Real test going to happen today. As per the Elliottwave Principle, once TRIANGLE formation completes, swift reversal comes. Hence, today we need to look out for major reversal in market. Today first it needs to breakdown 10800 level then 10735 to get confirmation of major reversal. Surprisingly, banknifty too completed Triangle type formation.
In daily charts, nifty formed HANGING MAN type formation, still open chances for top reversal as hanging man pattern forms at top. One option is today open slightly positive and slip in to red later by forming BEARISH ENGULPING pattern. Lets see how today's candle forms. Midcap and small cap indices too completed triangle formations. Hence, open chances for major trend reversal to resume. Today's pattern need to watch to understand next market direction. Till then avoid fresh investment. Book profits wherever possible.
upside is limited to 10870-10880 as Wave e peak and downside is huge. Incase this 10735 level breaksdown, then we get confirmation of completion of triangle and we can see deeper correction in market. So, keep an eye on 10870-10880 zone on upside and 10735 zone on downside. This is SELL ON RISE market. Utilize every bounce to exit long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10800/10735 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10870-10880.

NIFTY UPDATE Monday, 09-07-2018

nifty

To understand nifty chart pattern, we need to step back and have bird's eye view from major low 9951 levels, from there nifty bounced back to 10929. From 10929, triangle formation has begun. That's the reason nifty moved in sideways pattern between 10919-10417. As per Elliottwave perspective, Wave B consists double or triple corrective pattern. In this case, it forming double zigzag formation plus triangle formation at the end. Usually triangle forms at the end of corrective pattern. Once the last leg of triangle (wave e as marked in chart) completes, IMPULSIVE WAVE DOWN begins with huge fall.
Hence, from now onwards, upside is limited to 10850-10870 as Wave e peak and downside is huge. Hence, keeping that in mind, avoid fresh long positions and exit long positions around 10850-10870 range. Sectoral indices too confirming this. On the downside, key level to watch for confirmation of wave e of triangel has completed, is 10705-10712 zone. Incase this 10705 level breaksdown, then we get confirmation of completion of triangle and we can see deeper correction in market. So, keep an eye on 10850-10870 zone on upside and 10705-10715 zone on downside. Fresh trade advisable only on these levels. This is SELL ON RISE market. Utilize every bounce to exit long positions and STAY IN CASH.
For Intraday point of view, First weakness comes below 10715 and next Weakness comes below 10685. Hence, 10715/10685 are crucial support levels for nifty today. Resistance remains at 10870. Major trend favoring Bears. Close below 10685 gives more strength to Bears. Hence, investors/traders give most preference to booking profits and utilize this bounce to exit long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10715-10685 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10850-10870.

NIFTY UPDATE Thursday, 05-07-2018

nifty

Nifty made low of 10695 and tested high at 10776 and closed at 10769. Bounce from 10557 to 10776 (200 points) was in 3 inner waves. A complexe counter upmove. a 78.6% retracement of previous fall from 10836 to 10550. As per Elliottwave Principle, Major Impulsive Down wave is sub-dividing, means its extending. As per Elliottwave, At yesterday's High point, this counter upmove should have ended and Impulsive downwave must begin from hereon. We need confirmation for this by breaking 10715 supporting trendline. Hence, wait and watch for breaking down 10715 spot level and on Breaking this support line, one can enter in FRESH SHORT SELL in NIFTY for 10550 positional target. Midcaps Index too completed counter upmove yesterday and downmove should have resume today. We need to wait for confirmation today. On the whole, as mentioned ealier, this is SELL ON RISE market. Utilize every bounce to exit long positions and STAY IN CASH.
For Intraday point of view, First weakness comes below 10715 and next Weakness comes below 10685. Hence, 10715/10685 are crucial support levels for nifty today. Resistance remains at 10780. Banknifty more vulnerable to decline today. BANKNIFTY WEEKLY OPTIONS SETTLEMENT TODAY, banking sector likely to witness huge volatility today second half of the day. Be prepare for major decline in nifty below 10685 level. Evening Star formation in Weekly charts giving strength to Bears. Major trend favoring Bears. Close below 10685 gives more strength to Bears. Hence, investors/traders give most preference to booking profits and utilize this bounce to exit long positions. Market in SELL ON RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10715-10685 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10780/10830.

NIFTY UPDATE Wednusday, 04-07-2018

nifty

Nifty moved in range bound entire day. Elliottwave wise, completed a-b-c counter upmove pattern at 10715. Now ready for Impulsive downmove towards 10615-10595. For Intraday point of view, First weakness comes below 10685 and next Weakness comes below 10645. Hence, 10685/10645 are crucial support levels for nifty today. Resistance remains at 10715-10735 zone. Banknifty more vulnerable to decline today. Avoid buying banking stocks. PSU bank index also witnessing bearish formation. Few PHARMA stocks looking bullish. Metals continuing in bearish mode. Midcaps and small caps took pause in selloff and moved sideways but major trend remains down. Be prepare for major decline in nifty below 10645 level. Evening Star formation in Weekly charts giving strength to Bears. Bulls need more strength to take nifty above 10735. Under current circumstances Bulls are helpless. Major trend favoring Bears. 10715-10735 acts as stiff resistance zone. Close below 10645 gives more strength to Bears. Hence, investors/traders give most preference to booking profits and utilize this bounce to exit long positions. Market in SELL ON RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. Utilize every rally to build short selling positions and exiting long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10685-10645-10615 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10715-10735-10750.

NIFTY UPDATE tUESDAY, 03-07-2018

nifty

Nifty opened higher but slipped sharply due to lack of followup buying. Smart traders/investros gave more importance to profit booking and short selling at higher levels. Nifty slipped to almost Friday's low. As mentioned in last update, 10615-10595 crucial support for Nifty. Once this zone breakdowns, we can expect further selloff to 10550. Nifty closed below key resistance level. Pattern wise, Evening Star formation in Weekly charts, making nifty more bearish. Bulls failing everytime in utilizing bounce in nifty. Bears controlling market. Overall sentiment Negative. Monthly charts too showing bearish formation. Below 10550, we can see free fall in Nifty. Hence, bulls last hope is at 10550. 10686-10705 acts as stiff resistance zone. Close below 10595 gives more strength to Bears. For intraday point of View, 10595 acts as crucial support level, staying below this level, selloff continues till 10550 zone. Hence, investors/traders give most preference to booking profits and utilize this bounce to exit long positions. Correction in Pharma stocks continuing. Selloff in Midcaps and small caps going on. Market in SELL ON RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. Major trend down. Utilize every rally to build short selling positions and exiting long positions. Volatility rising significantly. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10615-10592 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10705-10750.

NIFTY UPDATE Monday, 02-07-2018

nifty

Nifty moved exactly as per forecast, tested 10557 from 10830 zone. On Friday, Nifty bounced back to 10721 to adjust oversold position. It retraced 66% of previous decline. Hence, Nifty can stop bouncing and resume its major trend to downside today. Next key level to watch 10612-10595 zone. 10720-10750 acts as stiff resistance zone. Close below 10600 give more strength to Bears. One day sharp rallies as quite normal in Bear market. Do not need to confuse as it is revival of upmove. Most of the time bounce limited to one day only. For intraday point of View, 10705 acts as crucial support level, staying below this level(10705) selloff continues till 10600 zone. Hence, investors/traders give most preference to booking profits and utilize this bounce to exit long positions. Pharma stocks completed first leg of upmove and now vulnerable to correction. Midcaps at crucial support level. More selloff can be possible in Midcap Index and Smallcap Index. Metal Index also reached crucial support zone. One close below this support line can open gates for free fall. Market in SELL ON RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. Major trend down. Selloff in global markets likely to resume again. Utilize every rally to build short selling positions and exiting long positions. Volatility rising significantly. As far as possible, get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10615-10592 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10750.

NIFTY UPDATE Tuesday, 26-06-2018

nifty

Nifty faced stiff resistance at 10830 level and broken down 10780 and entered into free fall zone. Next key support level to watch 10640. Bulls failed to utilize opening bounce again. Mainly due to lack of followup buying. Smart investors/traders preferred to book profits and utilized this bounce to exit long positions. Nifty closed below key supporting trendline at 10760 around. Banknifty too formed BEARISH HARAMI pattern in daily charts. Close below 26500 free fall zone for banknifty. Sectoral indices NiftyMetals, FMCG, AUTO, MIDCAP, SMALLCAP too breaking key support levels. Pharma stocks too facing profit booking. Market in SELL ON RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. This week we have FNO settlement hence, smart traders stay away from making fresh investments. Major trend down. Selloff in global markets likely to propel selloff in our markets too. Utilize every rally to build short selling positions and exiting long positions. Due to fno settlement, Volatility rising significantly. As far as possible, get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10640-10620 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10880.

NIFTY UPDATE Monday, 25-06-2018

nifty

On Friday, Nifty took minor support around 10738 and bounced back to 10837. As mentioned in last updates, 10850-10830 nifty has downward gap and it acting as stiff resistance zone. Today also this gap acts as stiff resistance zone. Today nifty key crucial support is at 10775-10760 zone. Trading below 10775-10760 zone indicates loss of momentum and again selling pressure resumes. Market still in SELL OF RALLY mode. Avoid Fresh long positions. Banknifty too halted at crucial resistance zone. 26765 acting as stiff resistance. This week we have FNO settlement hence, smart traders stay away from making fresh investments. Major trend down. Short term bounce is at resistance zone, hence on the whole markets are again at vulnerable point. Global markets also in major down trend. Utilize every rally to build short selling positions and exiting long positions. Nifty next strong resistance is at 10880 level. Sectoral indices took minor breath from continuous selloff. Still major trend down hence any time sharp selloff not ruled out. Due to fno settlement, we may see high volatility from today onward. As far as possible, get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10775-10760 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10880.

NIFTY UPDATE Friday, 22-06-2018

nifty

Nifty opened higher but bulls failed to utilize that opportunity to move higher. Bulls failure mainly because major trend is down and downward gap between 10850-10830 acting as stiff resistance. Smart traders and investors gave more importance in Profit booking and entering fresh short selling at opening highs. Thats why market slipped in second half of the day to 10726 and closed at 10741 just near supporting trendline. One gap down opening today can breakdown this supporting trendline easily and we can witness more selling in market. Banknifty needs to close below 26300 today to breakdown key supporting trendline. As today is last day of the Week, hence, today's closing levels are very important to decide next week's trend. Sectoral indices, METALS, IT, FMCG, MIDCAP, SMALL CAP facing selling off and likely to continue in downside today also. Next week fno settlement so we may see high volatility from today onward. No change in major downtrend. As mentioned in last update, Pharma stocks facing profit booking. Overall sentiment turned into SELL ON RALLY Mode. As far as possible, get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10697-10687 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10785/10895.

NIFTY UPDATE Thursday, 21-06-2018

nifty

Nifty took minor support at 10700 level and bounced back to resistance zone. 10785 acting as strong resistance zone. Oversold position in hourly charts adjusted yesterday and ready for another selloff today. Banknifty too in similar pattern. Today Banknifty Weekly options settlement, so we may see high volatility in bankning stocks in last hour of trade. No change in major downtrend. At 10700, key supporting trendline placed, hence as a first reaction it bounced from there but 10785 is strong resistance as shown in above chart, under current market scenario, its hard to breakout this resistance. Below 10765, this bounce breaks down. Hence, any move below 10765 initiates fresh round of selloff and moves down towards 10700-10687 zone again. As mentioned in last update, Pharma stocks facing profit booking. IT index facing selling pressure. FMCG SECTOR breaking key supports. Midcaps and Small caps took small breather. Overall sectors again likely to face selling pressure. Below 10700 spot, free fall zone for nifty. Today we can see significant selloff in market. Overall sentiment turned into SELL ON RALLY Mode. As far as possible, get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH.
10765/10700/10687 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10785/10895.

NIFTY UPDATE Wednusday, 20-06-2018

nifty

Exactly as expected nifty tested 10700 support line yesterday and closed around it. One gap down can violate this supportive trendline today. Next key support level to watch today is at 10634-10645 zone. Banknifty too broken key support level yesterday and now its heading towards 26120-26060 zone. As expected pharma stocks too facing profit booking at key resistance zone. Couple of days this profit booking likely to continue in large cap pharma stocks as these stocks sharply risen from low levels. Retesting of key resistance levels possible which were breakout last few days back. Hence, Pharma stocks are in BUY ON DIPS MODE. Private Sector Banks and Public Sector banks likely to move in negative zone. FMCG, METALS, IT, MIDCAP AND SMALL CAPS to face selling pressure today. Global markets too in bearish sentiment. Below 10700 spot, free fall zone for nifty. Bears driving the market. Today we can see significant selloff in market. Overall sentiment turned into SELL ON RALLY Mode. In midcap sector many stocks facing bloodbath. Do not try to average losing stocks. As far as possible get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH. Market likely to take more time to recovery in Midcap stocks.
10640 next key support for nifty.
Key resistance 10895.

NIFTY UPDATE Tuesday, 19-06-2018

nifty

Yesterday's Daily pattern negated Friday's bullish pattern. So in other words, Market cleared way for BEARS. Next Nifty key level to watch for breakdown is at 10700. Below 10700 market can see free fall. Banknifty too formed similar Bearish pattern. Majority of large cap stock positioned for bearish reversal. Today we can see significant selloff in market. Unless nifty moves above 10850, gap between 10850-10830 acts as stiff resistance zone. As long as nifty trades below this gap area, major trend remains BEARISH. Global markets too correlating with our markets at this time. This Selloff likely to continue further. Sectoral Indices-Metals, IT, FMCG, MIDCAP, SMALLCAP indices continued in bearish mode. Pharma sector likely to continue upmove with minor profit booking in between. . Overall sentiment turned to Sell on Rally Mode. In midcap sector many stocks facing bloodbath. Do not try to average losing stocks. As far as possible get out of losing long positions. Best strategy would be Keep reducing long positions and STAY IN CASH. Market likely to take more time to recovery in Midcap stocks. Investors can look for minor correction in large cap Pharma stocks to enter fresh investment. Buy on Dips in large cap pharma stocks. Excetp Pharma sector, in other sectors Sell on Rally market.
10720/10640 next key supports for nifty.
Key resistance 10895.

Trade Recommendation Monday, 18-06-2018

SHORT SELL TITAN FUTURES @900 FOR TARGET OF 882. STOPLOSS 907. DURATION 2 DAYS.


"Money always comes to knowledge. Without Knowlege, money is worthless."--WILLIAM DELBERT GANN